Nothing says cricket like an Australian retread joking with a California girl on a Chennai summer day!
IPL 2012 is officially underway. I hope to provide an interesting statistical analytics perspective thru the tournament.
In Part I of my IPL Analytics series, I looked at the possible impact in the IPL on teams when they play two games in three days. It was one attempt at identifying secondary surrounding factors that affect a team’s success and failure.
Today’s analysis will focus on team scores and end results of games in IPL 2010 and IPL 2011. What if anything does this data tell us about what it’d take to win in 2012?
In 2010, teams batting first went 31-28 (Wins-Losses). The median score of winning teams in games where the team batting first won, was 177. Also, a sub-160 score was defended successfully only on four occasions.
In sharp and somewhat obvious contrast, the median total by winning teams in games where the chasers won, was 152. A score of 180 stood as a bit of a holy grail as only four attempts out of 18 chases of scores above 180 ended successfully.
In 2011, the games were held a touch earlier and run scoring was down a little bit. Also, chasers held a 38-33 (Win-Loss) advantage unlike the previous season.
The median score of winning teams in games won by the team batting first, was down to 168 while the median score by successful chasers was 141. Interestingly the holy grail was a lot closer to 160 this time around.
Teams that scored 160 won almost 70% of the time.
Keep these numbers in mind while watching games this season! Commentators will be prone to hyping every four, every six virtually every over. There is a decent sample size now of IPL games in India and if the team you root for has scored more than 180 or is chasing under 160, stay CALM!!! Also, while predicting teams that will make the playoffs, make your best educated guess on the run totals the top and middle orders are capable of. It will help separate teams more than you may think!
Thoughts and feedback appreciated as usual. Please do take some time to vote in the poll question here as well.